February 27

Part III Session 1: Northeast Asian Security amid US-China Competition

In this session, experts from Japan, the ROK and Taiwan held discussions to re-illuminate the situation in Northeast Asia, which tends to be spoken about from the US and Chinese perspectives, from the viewpoints of the countries located between these two major powers, and to obtain suggestions about the regional order in Northeast Asia.

The discussion focused on analyses of the current situations on the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan and the East China Sea, as well as the impacts of developments in US-China relations, especially the transition to the new Biden administration. Regarding North Korea, speakers viewed the possibility of a regime collapse as low since North Korea is politically stable despite its economic difficulties. They also expected that North Korea would take a restrained and "inward-looking" stance for the time being because of its expectations for negotiations with the United States, but that it could renew its provocations if the Biden administration does not move forward.

Regarding Taiwan, it was pointed out that the United States and Taiwan will likely continue drawing closer together during the Biden administration, as Taiwan's geopolitical position and importance in the high-tech supply chain are increasing in the context of the US-China conflict. As for the East China Sea, the analysis was made that China characteristically adopts complex and sustained approaches, and that China will continue to try changing the status quo through such approaches to strengthen its domestic power base.

Furthermore, the speakers agreed that the following points are critically important to maintain a stable regional order in a situation where China continues trying to take the initiative and the resources of the United States are relatively declining. First, each country in the region should consider the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea as one sphere. Second, they will need to have the flexibility to deal with various issues between countries separately and be prepared to build multi-layered relationships via communication between related departments domestically to strengthen wide-ranging international cooperation including in areas other than security, while contributing to capacity building in the countries concerned.

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