Event Report

The 2nd Tokyo Global Dialogue

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February 27

Closing Plenary Session: The Indo-Pacific of Tomorrow and International Response

Discussions in the Closing Plenary Session centered around the nature of the US-China confrontation, its impact on the Indo-Pacific region, and responses by various countries in the region. Active debate took place on the nature of the US-China confrontation: one panelist found it stems from the economic/military power balance shift and China’s challenge to the existing order; another emphasized China’s political regime, particularly the issue of communism and the Chinese Communist Party; while others referred to the rise of the Chinese economy based on the combination of an authoritarian regime and capitalism. A view was expressed casting doubt on China’s intentions to pursue regional hegemony, but this was rebutted with the argument that China’s intentions should be judged based on its actions and narratives.

The rising tension in US-China relations might not only lead to competition over technology and decoupling of supply chains but even result in an unintended military conflict – the possibility being even higher now than during the Cold War – and the need to avoid such a risk was stressed. Many panelists were doubtful about the potential positive impact of US-China cooperation in global issues on their bilateral relations in general. A view was expressed that Japan may also try to manage US-China relations through the double-track of competition and cooperation.

Regarding regional initiatives, the need for cooperation among democratic countries, including those outside the region, was stressed; the importance of rules-based and open multilateralism—such as the FOIP and the QUAD—was emphasized, and Japan’s role in promoting them was highly appreciated. One panelist stressed the importance of a “cooperative Asia-Pacific” in contrast to a “divided Indo-Pacific”. The value of ASEAN centrality in the increasingly difficult regional situation was also emphasized.

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