Event Report

The 2nd Tokyo Global Dialogue

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February 26

Part I Session 1: US-China Military Balance and Prospects for Arms Control

In this session, the military aspects of the great power competition between the US and China and its implications for arms control were discussed. The panelists were generally unanimous in their understanding of the current situation. While the risk of an outbreak of armed conflict in the Western Pacific, especially around Taiwan, increases, it is unlikely that the US will regain its former overwhelming dominance in the region due to China's military modernization. On the other hand, the US and China mutually viewed the other side as increasing its provocations. The panelists also expressed a sense of urgency based on the concern that the risk of nuclear weapons being used is the highest since the end of the Cold War, as hypersonic missiles, ASATs, cyber-attacks, and the integration of emerging technologies into military capabilities are increasingly destabilizing the deterrent relationship.

Neither the US nor China wants a direct conflict, and panelists argued that, in order to avoid such a conflict, the US and China need to revitalize dialogue and consultations for crisis management, risk reduction, and confidence building. The panelists also stressed the need for the major powers to take the lead in restoring the multilateral arms control system, which has been shaken by the great power competition, and for the five nuclear weapon states to further strengthen their nuclear arms control efforts in relation to the multipolar nuclear issue.

As for Japan's role in the US-China competition, especially in a Taiwan crisis, one panelist pointed out that Taiwan's security is also important to Japan and that Japan should show its opposition to changing the status quo by force. On the other hand, other panelists suggested that the role of NATO during the Cold War, which was to curb US escalation and work to create a region-wide security order, would serve as a helpful reference.

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