February 26
Part II Session 4: The Middle East Amid the Pandemic and the Strategic Transformation
The Middle East Session focused on the current strategic issues in the region, including the Biden administration’s reengagement with Iran, shifts in US policies on the Middle East, and their implications for national and regional security. With many factors underlying the region’s instability, all panelists shared a consensus on the necessity of establishing a comprehensive regional security system; opinions were divided as to the JCPOA process.
US commitments to the region shifted considerably during the Obama and Trump administrations. Some envisaged that Biden would take a middle path between the two, carefully handling traditional allies. The declining US presence in the region reflects its shift to Asia and the declining relative importance of the region for the US; this has caused a feeling of anxiety among the Gulf Arab countries and Israel regarding US commitments. In this regard, according to one panelist, not only JCPOA but also other relevant regional issues should be tackled in parallel, and more regional stakeholders should be part of those negotiations.
Despite diversified political views and camps in Iran, most Iranians experiencing the pandemic and economic recessions hope that sanctions against the country will be lifted. Some panelists suggested the international community should assist Iran to return to the JCPOA before its presidential election, whereas the GCC members believe the JCPOA would significantly impact the regional power balance. For Turkey, Iran is both a partner and a competitor, and the JCPOA will also be important as a starting point for the establishment of a regional comprehensive security system.
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