February 28
Roundtable Featuring "Strategic Annual Report 2023"
The "Strategic Annual Report 2023" described the world as facing "three fronts" of turmoil – war in Ukraine, crisis in the Middle East, and US-China competition – as well as division within the US, and declared that these problems hinder efforts to solve global challenges such as climate change and to reform dysfunctional global governance institutions such as the UN Security Council. Based on these basic perceptions, the roundtable pursued in-depth discussions on the impacts of the US presidential election, global security arrangements, the political circumstances in specific countries and regions and their policies toward the US and China, approaches to achieving ceasefires in various conflicts, and the future of the international order and UN reform.
The year 2024 can be called a year of elections, so a particular focus was placed on the possible impacts of the November US presidential election results on other countries and the international order. The speakers noted that the outcome of the US presidential election cannot be predicted, at the same time expressing their views on the impacts on alliance relations and security and the future of relations with the US with the possibility of former President Trump returning to power in mind. Concerns were also expressed about the reemergence of the "inward-looking orientation" sometimes seen in US history, prompting discussions on dealing with this issue based on experiences during the Trump administration.
Regarding security arrangements, it was pointed out that the Hungarian parliament's approval of Sweden's NATO membership on February 26, just prior to the 5th Tokyo Global Dialogue, is predicted to have positive effects, among these being added strategic depth to Nordic deterrence against Russia and greater synergy between NATO and the EU thanks to further similarities among those institutions’ member states. Furthermore, the importance of continued US engagement in maintaining Indo-Pacific security was emphasized, as was the development of the mini-lateral cooperation frameworks among the members of AUKUS and the QUAD, Japan, South Korea, and other countries to complement traditional bilateral alliances.
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