February 29

Part 1: US-China competition and the Indo-Pacific (1) Politics & security

The speakers discussed the Indo-Pacific region, where the competition between the US and China has become protracted and multifaceted and where a "breakdown" in the regional order is taking place.

The speakers analyzed the current impacts of US-China competition on the region, asserting that containing China and eliminating the US presence are both impossible options, and that all states are thus seeking to strike a balance between the two superpowers. The dilemma created by Chinese opposition to moves to secure such a balance was pointed out, and the need to ensure that US-China competition is "fair competition", with the 2023 US-China summit meeting marking a milestone in that regard, was reaffirmed. It was also pointed out that the Indo-Pacific region is inseparably linked to world affairs, making order building in the region all the more essential.

Regarding Taiwan as a focal point of regional affairs, it was noted that the US is firmly in support of Taiwan and a peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue, and that all actors are aware of the "cost" of Taiwanese independence, considered a red line by China, so the possibility of an armed conflict in the short term is not high. On the other hand, concern was expressed that the outbreak of a Taiwan conflict would directly lead to a conflict on the Korean Peninsula. It was also suggested that the states of the region would not sit idly by in the face of a Taiwan conflict but would instead act to prevent any negative impacts on the regional and international orders.

The dysfunctionality of the existing international rules was identified as a future challenge facing the region, and the urgency of developing alternative rules with an umbrella-type structure was highlighted. The participants also agreed on the need to persuade the next US president to take as given the recent structural changes in the region, i.e., the turmoil in the international order and the emergence of partnership-type cooperative frameworks, and on the need for all states to persuade the US president that continuing to work on these issues would serve the US’s national interests.

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