February 29

Part 2: Changes in the security environment and Japan's responses (1) Japan’s National Security Strategy and future challenges

This session focused on the increasingly complex security environment in East Asia, discussing improving relations among China, Russia, and North Korea as well as collaborative efforts between the US and its allies. China's ambitions stood out most to participants as a major threat to stability in the East Asian region, while threats from Russia and North Korea were also of concern. Some speakers even used the expression "axis of autocracy," underscoring the widespread perception that cooperation among these states is contributing to instability throughout Eurasia. Consideration was also focused on China-Russia-North Korea coordination vis-à-vis South Korea and Taiwan and the impacts of a Trump reelection as well as on other issues such as the importance of the US, Japan, and South Korea bolstering their deterrence and the respective risks of economic interdependence with the US and China.

In examining these circumstances, the speakers noted that Japan and other members of the democratic camp should seek international collaboration and emphasized the need for multilateral security cooperation and the importance of a coherent security strategy among the US and its allies. They also proposed concrete measures such as reestablishing a military balance in the Taiwan Strait and reconstructing defense industrial bases, both initiatives to be led by the US. Concerns about a Trump reelection included the weakening of alliances, the risk of economic interdependence with the US, and the reduction of US forces stationed in South Korea. Given the strengthened relations between Russia and North Korea and the possibility of a second Trump administration, the importance of promoting further security cooperation among the US, Japan, and South Korea was pointed out.

Emphasizing the maintenance of a rules-based international order as beneficial to all states irrespective of their size, it was suggested that underscoring the benefits of a rules-based international order and exploiting mutual distrust among autocracies be considered as strategies to counter collaboration among China, Russia, and North Korea because this order could foster division among these autocracies and enhance regional stability. Cooperation within the democratic camp was affirmed to be essential in curbing aggressive actions by these three states and maintaining peace.

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