February 29

Part 3: Ukraine and the Middle East: The advent of an era of perennial conflict and the future of international security and cooperation (1) Perennial conflict: how do we deal with the “three fronts” of Ukraine, the Middle East and Asia?

This session focused on the main geopolitical challenges in 2024, particularly actions to be taken on the "three fronts" of Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. The critical importance of Ukraine's territorial integrity in maintaining the postwar international order was emphasized. It was also pointed out that cooperation among authoritarian states makes these issues interconnected and more complex to address.

It was made evident that managing multiple crises simultaneously places a strain on countries’ policy makers and resources. Domestic exhaustion over support for the war in Ukraine in Western states, particularly the US, was cited as a concern, and it was suggested that leaders must clearly explain the interests at stake to the public. Concerns in Germany, the second largest contributor of military aid to Ukraine, about escalation of the conflict were also mentioned. The discussants confirmed that Western states need to coordinate their support for Ukraine and enhance their communication.

Regarding the Middle East, the role of regional powers in conflict resolution and the need for a sustainable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict were emphasized. Concerns were raised about China's growing power in the Middle East, trauma in US policy toward the Middle East, and strategic ambiguity. Nevertheless, assessments of strategic ambiguity differed among the panelists. At the end of the discussion, it was reiterated that clear signaling and credible deterrence are necessary to maintain a rules-based international order globally.

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