On March 16, 2022, JIIA hosted an emergency webinar, " Today's Nuclear Deterrence and East Asia's Security Environment," with experts from the United States and Japan. They discussed the implications of Russia's ongoing aggression against Ukraine for the US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and its ramifications for the East Asian strategic environment, including Japan.
Dr. Anna Péczeli, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, noted that past NPRs had shown continuity with respect to declaratory policy, arms control, and nuclear weapons modernization, and the Biden Administration's NPR would do so as well. Dr. Brad Roberts, Director, Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, also noted that Biden's NPR would emphasize continuity and positive impacts on East Asia as China continued to build up its nuclear capability, while the war in Ukraine would initiate more active discussions within NATO about strengthening deterrence. Mr. Sugio Takahashi, Head, Defense Policy Division, Policy Studies Department, National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS), expressed concern about the influence of the disconnect between the nuclear deterrence and disarmament camps in the US on the NPR. He also stated that East Asia remains a more dangerous region despite the situation in Ukraine, and that with China's growing nuclear capabilities, the US and China are approaching the situation of mutually assured destruction. He pointed out the necessity to reconsider the nature of extended deterrence. Dr. Nobumasa Akiyama, Professor at Hitotsubashi University and Adjunct Fellow at the JIIA, pointed out that there is a disconnect between the trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific factions among US arms control experts, and while the US and its allies failed to maintain crisis stability in Ukraine, this may increase the possibility of bringing China into arms control in Asia. Following these presentations, Dr. Hirofumi Tosaki, Director, Center for Disarmament, Science and Technology, JIIA, asked questions about the new challenges posed by the war in Ukraine with regard to nuclear deterrence, lessons being learned by China, and the implications in case of the next NPR rolling back nuclear modernization. A lively discussion and Q&A followed, moderated by JIIA's Director General, Ms. Tomiko Ichikawa.