The purpose of "JIIA Strategic Comments" is to provide timely and easy-to-understand commentary and policy-relevant analysis from JIIA researchers and others on important international affairs issues.

Two months have passed since the launch of the second Trump administration in the United States. The new administration's rapid succession of policy announcements has sent shockwaves not only throughout the US but also across many countries and international institutions.

The trajectory of the much-watched trade war remains largely unclear. As of now, however, the Trump administration's tariff measures are not exclusively targeting China, which means China has not been completely isolated. There remains room for China to avoid catastrophic damage to its economy and to strengthen economic relations with other countries¹.

In foreign affairs, the US is placing particular focus on ending ongoing wars, while China is keeping its distance from peace negotiations even as it conducts wide-ranging diplomatic initiatives with an eye on the US, including: Foreign Minister Wang Yi's overseas visits to Europe, the US, and Africa²; neighborhood diplomacy through the Winter Asian Games held in Harbin, China; diplomatic coordination with Russia; a trilateral vice-ministerial meeting among China, Russia, and Iran on Iran's nuclear program; and most recently, Wang Yi's visit to Japan and participation in the China-Japan-Korea Foreign Ministers' Meeting.

This article will examine the national image that China's recent diplomacy is trying to create, focusing on the words "stability" and "certainty" as well as the term "enabling great power", as a foothold for analyzing China's diplomacy in 2025.

China as a Stabilizing Force in the World: A Narrative Strategy

On February 14, 2025, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi appeared in person for the third consecutive year at the Munich Security Conference (MSC). In Europe, there was widespread concern about the Trump administration-led peace negotiations and the content of remarks made by US Vice President JD Vance, who had taken the stage at the MSC earlier. As a result, Europe's expectations for China this year differ from the hopes it had embraced in 2024 that China would restrict exports of dual-use goods to Russia and contribute to peace through the use of its influence over Russia. In this context, Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized the consistency and certainty of China's diplomacy in his speech at the MSC, saying, "China will surely be a factor of certainty in this multipolar system, and strive to be a steadfast constructive force in a changing world." This served to highlight the contrast with the United States.

On March 7, during the third day of the National People's Congress (NPC), Wang Yi held the customary press conference, responding to 23 questions from domestic and foreign journalists over approximately 90 minutes. Reflecting on China's diplomacy in 2024, he stated that it had "brought much-needed stability to a changing and turbulent world." In response to a follow-up question by a Xinhua reporter, he elaborated:

"Today's world is mired in multiple crises. Certainty is becoming an increasingly scarce global resource. The choices of each country, especially major powers, determine the course of our era and influence global dynamics. Chinese diplomacy, unwavering in its commitment to the right side of history and human progress, offers stability to an uncertain world³."

The narrative that China is bringing stability to the world is intended to contrast with the uncertainty and turmoil that the second-term Trump administration is bringing, and it has become a frequent topic in various fora of Chinese diplomacy. Following Wang's press conference, Global Times published an editorial on March 8 titled: "The Stability of Chinese Diplomacy is a Gift to the World." The editorial notes that many perceive the key words of this press conference to have been "stability" and "certainty". It also argues that the stability and certainty of Chinese diplomacy is rooted in the fact that, even in chaotic international circumstances, China's diplomacy has maintained a spirit of "never changing its original intention", has made steady progress in building a community of human destiny, and can expect incremental but continuous progress in the future⁴.

A New Keyword: "Enabling Great Power"

In his year-end address at the close of 2024, President Xi Jinping summarized the past year's foreign policy by stating:

"In a world of both transformation and turbulence, China, as a responsible major country, is actively promoting global governance reform and deepening solidarity and cooperation among the Global South. We are making deeper and more substantive advances in high-quality Belt and Road cooperation. The Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation was a full success. We put forward China's vision at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, APEC, G20 and other bilateral and multilateral forums. China has thus injected greater positive energy into global peace and stability⁵."

China being a country that "injects positive energy" into the world is both a self-evaluation and a national image that China wants to instill. The new term "enabling great power(賦能型大国)" that describes such a nation is being used more and more frequently in 2025. The "賦能(funeng)" in "賦能型大国" was originally used in China as a management term for empowerment or transfer of authority, but in recent years it has become a term used in a wide range of contexts to mean giving power or energy.

The term "empowering great power" is derived from an article by Warwick Powell, Adjunct Professor at Queensland University of Technology and a Senior Fellow at Taihe Institute, on China's status as an "enabler⁶." The concept asserts that China's development--through "Chinese-style modernization"--contributes to global development, and that China is a country that brings benefits and growth to others.

The term "empowering great power" was also introduced in Foreign Minister Wang Yi's speech at the MSC mentioned above. On February 17, the People's Daily published an editorial titled "Resolutely Acting as an 'Enabling Great Power'⁷" in its "Hesheng" column, which was followed by eight more articles in the series⁸. These pieces argue that China, as an enabling power, contributes to peace, shared development, and the provision of global public goods by upholding the ideal of a shared future for humanity. It is also positioned in contrast to previous great powers that pursued "extractive" modernization; China, in this view, seeks to empower rather than exploit.

Furthermore, in a regular press conference on February 27, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded to a question about whether China is passive in contributing to global economic stability by stating:

"China will continue to place development at the heart of the global agenda, uphold the vision of a shared future for mankind, resolutely act as an enabling great power, and inject further certainty and stability into the global economy⁹."

Will the Global Narrative War Favor China?

As outlined above, China's central message is that while the US creates instability and uncertainty, China offers stability, predictability, and opportunities for economic and social development. While the US is increasingly unilateralist and protectionist, China is adhering to multilateralism and free trade and is increasingly asserting itself as a builder of world peace, a contributor to global development, and a defender of international order. However, this narrative is not being taken at face value, at least not in the mainstream Western media. Such narratives are not convincing in light of China's coercive behavior toward its neighbors.

However, the radical rhetoric and abrupt policy shifts seen under the second Trump administration--particularly from the President and his inner circle--could expand the audience receptive to China's message. Under the Trump administration, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) will see its operations drastically reduced, the Voice of America (VOA), a media outlet that China considers dangerous, has been ordered to scale down its functions, and its employees are on administrative leave¹⁰. This creates a window of opportunity for China to strengthen its soft power and amplify its narrative.

Still, it is doubtful that China is willing to go beyond the above-mentioned narratives and endeavor to take advantage of such windows of opportunity, as it is unlikely to swing toward significantly expanding the extent of its external economic cooperation as it steps up its fiscal mobilization to expand domestic demand in dealing with its own economic slowdown. In any case, a failure by the liberal camp to confront the challenges facing developing countries and regions and complement the assistance that the US has provided will give credence to the Chinese narrative.

Notable diplomatic events for China in 2025 include President Xi's expected visit to Russia in May for the Victory Day celebration; a potential US-China summit in the same period; the hosting of the SCO Summit in Tianjin in the fall; and the 80th anniversary of victory in the Second Sino-Japanese War in September, a key event for China-Russia coordination that Japan should closely monitor. In the latter half of 2025, China will host the Global Leaders' Meeting on Gender Equality and Women's Empowerment in Beijing, marking the milestone 30^th anniversary of the adoption of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action at the 1995 World Conference on Women. In a context where the US has retreated on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and global criticism of China's human rights record has subsided, Beijing is likely to highlight its domestic and external achievements in gender equality and women's empowerment. How other countries regard this messaging will be critical¹¹.

If international public opinion develops in China's favor, narratives originating in China will easily permeate the international community, and there is a danger that an environment will develop in which China's opaque expansion of military forces, changes to the status quo through force, and economic coercion will not be viewed as problems. In this information contest, it will become even more important for Japan to cooperate with like-minded countries and provide meticulous foreign assistance.

(This is an English translation of a Japanese paper originally published on March 28, 2025)

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