On June 13, the Israeli military launched airstrikes against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, oil facilities, power plants, international airports, state-run television stations, and various government agencies, resulting in the deaths of over 200 Iranian civilians. Iran responded with retaliatory attacks across Israel, causing casualties among Israelis and intensifying the hostilities between the two sides. On June 22, the United States announced that it had successfully attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, creating an emergency for Japan, which relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude oil imports. This article will examine four points: (1) the background of the conflict, (2) the intentions of the parties involved (the United States, Israel, Iran, and Arab countries), (3) the Middle East diplomacy Japan should pursue, and (4) future prospects and points to note.

1. Background to the conflict

Direct conflict between Israel and Iran has occurred twice before, in April and October of last year (2024). Following the surprise attack by Hamas in October 2023 resulting in the capture of many Israeli hostages, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faced severe criticism from the Israeli public for what was deemed a "major blunder." However, the prime minister characterized this war as a second war of independence similar to the one fought in 1948, and claimed that surrounding forces were seeking to annihilate Israel (Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen) in an effort to achieve personal political gains. The recent preemptive strike against Iran can be seen as part of this strategy. While the two previous attacks were retaliatory responses to Iranian aggression, the current situation is significantly different as it involves a preemptive strike by Israel. Israel is determined to attack Iran thoroughly, without ruling out regime change.

2. Intentions of the parties

(1) The United States

Following the launch of Trump 2.0 on January 20 this year, direct negotiations between the United States and Iran began on April 12, and five rounds of negotiations had been held by May 23. Overly confident that threatening Iran would stop its nuclear development, President Donald Trump proposed a deal but the US's long-standing position of not recognizing Iran's right to enrich uranium for nuclear development and not lifting sanctions on Iran remained unchanged, and it was clear from the outset that the deal was unlikely to be concluded. As expected, Iran refused to abandon its right to enrich uranium for nuclear development.

Nevertheless, when asked after Israel's airstrike on Iran on June 13 whether the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would make progress in nuclear talks difficult, Trump responded in an interview with Fox News, "I don't think so. Maybe the opposite. Maybe now they will negotiate seriously", expressing his hope that the talks would continue. However, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Al-Busaidi on June 14 announced the cancellation of the sixth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran, which had been scheduled to take place in the Omani capital of Muscat on June 15.

In an interview with ABC News on June 15, Trump acknowledged for the first time that "it's possible we could get involved" in a conflict between Israel and Iran. Although he had emphasized that the US was not involved in Israel's airstrikes against Iran on the 13th, he announced on the 22nd that, with Iran's weakness having become apparent, the US had successfully attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities.

(2) Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu wanted to attack Iran immediately after the start of Trump's second term based on the background described in (1) above, but he decided to respect Trump's intention to make a deal with Iran for the time being. However, as the negotiations reached an impasse and Iran continued to advance its nuclear development, he decided the time had come to carry out the operation. Furthermore, from a more personal perspective, Netanyahu faced certain defeat in the upcoming elections with Israeli hostages in Gaza still unaccounted for, and he needed to continue the wartime cabinet to avoid that outcome. Expanding the front lines to Iran and elsewhere was his only chance for survival. On this point, Netanyahu stated in an interview with Fox News on June 15 that "it could certainly be the result" when asked whether the overthrow of the Iranian regime was one of the goals of Israel's military action. The fact that Netanyahu did not object to regime change in Iran suggests that the current Israel-Iran war may not be limited to military exchanges but could escalate into a prolonged conflict.

(3) Iran

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated on June 13, following the Israeli airstrikes, that "Israel has prepared a bitter fate for itself, which it will surely receive", indicating a willingness to retaliate. Iran subsequently launched numerous missiles at Israel that caused damage on the Israeli side, which can be considered something of an achievement. Iran initially viewed President Trump's offer of a deal as a "godsend." Iran's defense system had been weakened by last year's two Israeli attacks, and Hezbollah, Iran's proxy force in Lebanon, had also been weakened by the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah. The Houthis in Yemen had seen their capabilities diminished by intense US, UK, and Israeli air strikes, and Iran was losing influence in neighboring Syria due to the collapse of the Assad regime. Time was needed to revive Iran's regional support system, but the circumstances surrounding Netanyahu did not allow for that.

(4) Arab countries

Arab countries are not currently involved in the direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. The key player is likely to be Saudi Arabia, the regional powerhouse. Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic relations with Iran in March 2023 out of a shared strategic interest in regional stability. Iran has already asked Trump to work to calm tensions through Saudi Arabia, Oman, and other countries. Saudi Arabia's top priorities are its own economic development and the realization of Vision 2030, and it wants to avoid regional instability at all costs. With the US joining the conflict on the 22nd, however, Gulf countries with US military bases will be forced to make difficult decisions regarding their relations with Iran.

3. Japan's Middle East diplomacy

For Japan, which depends on the Middle East for more than 90% of its crude oil, stability in the region is a matter of national interest directly linked to the lives of the Japanese people. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by an Iran feeling cornered by US intervention has become a real possibility. Japan has channels of communication with the two belligerents Israel and Iran, and it should therefore step up its efforts at multiple levels, working not only with their foreign ministers but also their heads of state. Efforts within multilateral frameworks such as the G7 are also essential, but the G7 joint statement issued in Canada on June 16 and 17 stated "We reaffirm Israel's right to defend itself. We reiterate our support for Israel's security," while also claiming that "Iran is a source of instability in the region and a source of terrorism, and (the G7) will make clear that Iran must never be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons" in a harshly-worded message for Iran. Given the likelihood of pressure on Iran increasing after the US intervention on the 22nd, Japan should avoid narrowing its options for Middle East diplomacy and continue engaging with all parties involved, including Gulf countries dependent on oil sales, in a balanced and more intensive manner.

4. Outlook and points to note

The exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran has already expanded beyond government agencies to include Israeli nuclear and oil facilities and Iranian hospitals, and the confrontation between the two countries is likely to intensify. Additionally, the US intervention on the 22nd has raised the stakes to a new level, potentially opening a "Pandora's box" in the Middle East. The United States' strategy of gradual withdrawal from the Middle East, a consistent policy since the start of the Iraq War in 2003, has been reversed by the direct attack on Iran. On the 24th, Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, but the outlook remains uncertain. The possible responses from a cornered Iran include: (1) continuing and completing its nuclear development (although this is likely to be difficult due to attacks on its nuclear facilities by Israel and the United States); (2) creating chaos in global energy markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz; and (3) attacking US military facilities in the Middle East in retaliation (Iran attacked a US military base in Qatar on the 23rd).

Khamenei has already begun selecting a successor, anticipating the possibility of his own assassination. Regardless of the scenario, it appears to be a matter of time before a new leader emerges in Iran, and the Middle East is entering an unprecedented era.