March 3
Intensifying US-China Competition (2): Oceans
Focusing on the geopolitical aspects of the strategic competition between the US and China, participants discussed how the bilateral relationship would develop in 2022, especially the trend of the situation in the Taiwan Strait and the impact of the situation in Ukraine on the East China Sea.
It was argued that while the US side attributed the cause of deterioration of the US-China relationship to China's pursuit of hegemony, which is taking advantage of the relative decline in US national power, the Chinese side considered that it was caused by the unilateral shift by the United States from engagement to competition, fearing China's rise. The geopolitical problem was raised about the maritime expansion of China, inherently a continental power, which is upsetting the balance of power in the region and confronting with Japan and the US, both of which are maritime powers. Both the US and China feel the need for bilateral cooperation, but understand that the conflict is structural. No prospects for improvement in bilateral relations in the short term were indicated.
Regarding the implications of the situation in Ukraine for East Asia, while views were expressed urging China to reconsider the threats of military force against Taiwan, pointing to the unity in the West and the strength of people's demand for freedom, another view stressed that the Taiwan issue is a core interest for China and that China would not abandon the idea of unification by force as an option. Understanding of Russia's concerns about NATO's eastward expansion and criticism of Western nations that they are stuck in the old Cold War structure were also voiced.
About Japan's efforts to significantly enhance its defense capabilities, expectations were expressed for Japan to assume greater responsibility for regional peace and stability in the context of the revision of its national security strategy. On the other hand, criticism was also expressed, especially regarding nuclear sharing, stating it would pose a threat to regional stability.
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