February 21

【Part 2】 Impact of the War in Ukraine : (1) Politics and Security

With a year having passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, discussions focused on how the war in Ukraine would likely proceed, how to analyze the new era that would emerge from that war, and what shape the new postwar international order would take.

The view was generally shared that the war in Ukraine is likely to be a protracted one. Concern was voiced about the heightened risk of unforeseen events and the possibility of the war spreading to other regions. It was pointed out that growing US involvement in the war in Ukraine would create a power vacuum in the Indo-Pacific region, which could lead to new conflicts or negatively impact the global balance of power.

It was remarked that the war in Ukraine has intensified great power competition and that a new era centered on blocs – Europe and the US, China and Russia, and the Global South – is coming. Another view was that the blocs were not very cohesive and that international relations might instead become more fluid. From the perspective of the Global South in particular, the war in Ukraine is seen as an internecine European conflict from which the Global South wants to keep its distance.

As for the shape of the international order after the war in Ukraine, it was pointed out by many that a key challenge for the future would be bringing the war’s instigator Russia back into the international community and that this would depend in part on how the war in Ukraine ends.

Watch the video