February 21
【Part 2】 Impact of the War in Ukraine : (2) Economy
The wide-ranging economic impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine was discussed, including global supply instability and price hikes in energy, food, fertilizer, and other resources as well as the outlook for the global economy.
The global supply chains that have developed over the past 30 years have deepened the interdependence of the world economy, bringing both prosperity and vulnerability; it was pointed out that the effects of the crisis differ by country and region. Countries in the Global South, including those in the Middle East and Africa that had depended on Russia and Ukraine for staple grains, were being hit hard by compound crises, especially food insecurities, even before Covid-19. Having been reliant on Russian natural gas, the EU has somehow been saved by this year's warm winter, but the war has also derailed efforts to improve its energy security by transitioning to green energy.
In both food and energy, relevant measures such as diversifying suppliers and limiting export restrictions need to be taken as short-term crisis countermeasures but, at the same time, it was recommended that technology development and investment be accelerated to strengthen resilience and net-zero approaches to climate change in order to promote medium- and long-term structural changes. Expectation was expressed for intensive investments from other oil and gas exporting countries to promote structural changes since these countries benefited enormously from the de-Russification of 2022. The importance of perspectives linking energy and food (fuels as an input for food production, green ammonium leading to decarbonization, etc.) was noted, while emphasis was also placed on the need to establish a framework for well-coordinated international cooperation on infrastructure investment and storage. It was pointed out that the international community should be open and flexible in dealing with latent challenges at this stage. There was a shared recognition that the international community needs to strengthen multilateral cooperation to overcome this crisis.
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