Trump 2.0 Returning to the "Exceptionalism": Building a Multi-Layered Breakwater in the Midwest

Papers in the "JIIA Strategic Commentary Series" are prepared mainly by JIIA research fellows to provide comments and policy-oriented analyses of significant international affairs issues in a readily comprehensible and timely manner.

1. Reflections from Journeying Across the U.S. Midwest

During my tenure in Chicago as Consul-General of Japan, I was privileged to observe the 2024 presidential election—a process that would determine the future of both the United States and the world—from the front lines. Starting with the Iowa Caucuses in January, followed by the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July and the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August, and continuing into January 2025 with the inaugurations of new governors in the Republican strongholds of Missouri and North Dakota, I traveled across ten Midwestern states and listened to the voices of a diverse array of people.

In Japan, understanding of the United States often leans heavily on political trends from Washington, D.C., economic and financial information from New York, or cutting-edge technology and entertainment from the West Coast. However, unlike the East and West Coasts, where a neoliberal worldview prevails, the Midwest—the bedrock of the Trump support base and the heartland of manufacturing and agriculture—is an essential puzzle piece for understanding the full picture of the United States. In this commentary, I will reflect on the transformation of America as well as the sources of its enduring greatness as seen from the ground in the Midwest, and then discuss how Japan should manage the Japan-U.S. relationship amidst the turbulent waves of the second Trump term.

2. The Original Landscape of Good Old Democracy

Two years ago, on January 15, 2024, Iowa was hit by extreme cold and snow reported as "life-threatening." Amidst these conditions, the Republican Caucuses were held, firing the opening gun of the year-long presidential election process. While the world's attention was focused there, what I witnessed at the venue was a surprisingly analog and rustic landscape of democracy for this digital age. Voters wrote the names of their preferred candidates on scraps of paper. There were no ballot boxes; instead, they were collected in grocery store paper bags or tossed onto tables. Under the watchful eyes of the voters, these were sorted and tallied by hand, one by one. The slips of paper were marked "Presidential Straw Poll." Throughout the primary process, the physical proximity between candidates and voters fostered a high sense of civic participation—the very source of the greatness of American democracy. The result in Iowa saw Donald Trump overwhelm Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, demonstrating his true strength and setting the momentum for his eventual landslide. At the same time, I felt firsthand the centrifugal force at work, where candidates tended to favor extreme rhetoric to appeal to their party's base to win primaries, thereby fueling division within the country.

In the summer, the quadrennial major political events—the national conventions of the two major parties—took place. In 2024, both were held in the Midwest: The Republican in Milwaukee and the Democrat in Chicago. The national conventions are the climax of the first half (the primaries), where both parties nominate their candidates, and also the gong for the start of the second half, where the nominees compete for the presidency. For the parties, these are pep rallies intended to heal internal strife from the primary process, promote reconciliation, and project unity toward the general election in November. Both parties’ events were festive, with a strong sense of entertainment. In particular, immediately following the excitement of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August, many were under the temporary illusion that candidate Kamala Harris had decisive momentum.

One year ago, in January 2025, again in extreme cold, I attended the inaugurations of new governors in the Republican strongholds of Missouri and North Dakota (I was honored to be first official meeting partner for the new governor of Missouri). The Midwest is vast. The scale of each state is comparable to a single nation in Europe. States possess strong autonomy, including their own tax systems and regulations. To the people in these states, Washington, D.C. is merely a "distant and peculiar place." The "good old America" remains in the Midwest, and many take pride in the belief that "my state is the real America" or "the Midwest is the true engine driving the U.S. economy." For these people, the inauguration of their new governor is a more significant event than the presidential inauguration in Washington, D.C.; yet, at the same time, they sincerely rejoiced at the restoration of a Trump administration that is compatible with their state's political orientation.

3. Return to the "Exceptionalism"

During the first year of the second Trump term, the world has remained at the mercy of Trump-style "America First" unilateralism. Past Republican presidents championed internationalism in foreign policy and security, and free trade in commerce. However, Mr. Trump won the party primaries and the presidential election by taking the opposite stance: unilateralist foreign and security policies and geo-economic trade policies. As the British magazine The Economist warned last December that "looking at the new U.S. National Security Strategy, the U.S. is an unreliable ally, and it is better to prepare for the worst," a sense of pessimism is blanketing the world, with people wondering if the U.S. has fundamentally transformed and will never return to its former self.

In American political science, a presidential election that serves as a catalyst for a realignment of the political system over decades—where new issues emerge and voter support trends are rewritten—is sometimes categorized as a "critical election." Whether the 2024 (or 2016) election becomes such a "critical election," or whether it was merely a recurring phenomenon of alternation every four or eight years caused by specific factors like inflation and immigration, is something future political historians will evaluate.

One thing that can be said now is that there have been several instances in the past where American leadership felt "unorthodox" or perplexing to foreign observers. For example, when President Jimmy Carter took office in the 1970s, his morality- and human-rights-based diplomacy and his pledge to withdraw the Army from the Republic of Korea caused anxiety and bewilderment among allies, shaking U.S. credibility. Furthermore, the approach of eschewing multilateral frameworks and making harsh demands on partners in bilateral negotiations is by no means new. The use of "package deals" linking security and economy—such as the "Okinawa reversion and textile export restrictions" of the past—and the method of unilaterally judging fairness and imposing retaliatory sanctions if negotiations fail, are traditional American characteristics familiar to the generation that knew the Japan-U.S. trade friction. Trump 2.0 appears to have returned the U.S. to a giant "exceptional nation" where the principle of equality between sovereign states does not apply.

4. Facing a Partner Who Has Changed Its Tune

Voices suggesting that we should abandon hope for Mr. Trump’s America or that the U.S. is no longer reliable are not non-existent in Japan. However, as is often said, the Japan-U.S. alliance is like a marriage. Unlike the U.K.-U.S. relationship (which is like parent and child) or the U.S.-Australia relationship (which is like siblings), there is no common civilizational foundation between Japan and the U.S. Precisely for this reason, the Japan-U.S. alliance must be maintained through constant care and effort. In married life, one's partner is not always attractive or rational. There will be times when the partner appears self-centered, or when their flaws become noticeable and frustration builds. There may be times when both feel, "I am doing more for the other, and it is unfair." However, the true value of a marriage is tested not when the partner is in a good mood, but when they are irritated, wandering off course, and their words and actions do not seem wise. Without the tolerance and resolve to accept all facets of one’s partner, the relationship cannot endure.

Of course, as the 19th-century British Prime Minister Lord Palmerston famously stated, "We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual." The Japan-U.S. alliance is not unconditionally eternal. However, we should first recall the generosity the U.S. extended to Japan after the war, and the benefits Japan has derived from the international economic order and the U.S. market. When considering Japan's geopolitical necessity, today’s harsh security environment, the fact that the world's future depends on the hegemonic power of the U.S., and that the alliance has significance not only for security but also for politics, diplomacy, intelligence, and the economy, the optimal solution based on a cool-headed calculation of national interest remains the maintenance and strengthening of friendly Japan-U.S. relations.

5. Investing in the Next Generation with a Resilient Partner

Touring through the ten Midwestern states—an area five times the size of Japan—I was overwhelmed by the sources of America’s greatness: the federal system (and the resulting checks and balances), the temperament and scale of individuals, the extraordinarily vast space and quantity of resources, the overflowing confidence and vitality, the enterprising spirit, and the depth of universities and foundations. Encountering these sources of greatness makes one feel that, although the U.S. may swing in four- or eight-year cycles, in the medium to long term, it will exercise its inherent resilience and durability to remain a great nation.

While we hope this American resilience will persist, hope alone is not a strategy. One of the essential tasks for Japan will be to refrain from reacting with alternating hope and fear to the shifting political winds in Washington D.C., and instead focus on building, maintaining, and strengthening multilayered relationships at the state level through the collaboration of the public, private, academic, and grassroots sectors. Such efforts should serve to neutralize any potential negative impacts arising from the capital. This involves the relationships of trust that our predecessors have built over many years. In the Midwest, Japanese companies—such as Kikkoman in Wisconsin, Subaru and Toyota in Indiana, and Kawasaki Heavy Industries in Nebraska—have contributed to local communities as good corporate citizens, building up "surplus of trust" beyond just providing jobs and supporting economy.

On the other hand, there is a concerning trend. Recently, I received a poignant message from an acquaintance in the Midwest stating that expertise and educational opportunities regarding Japan-U.S. relations and Japanese foreign and security policy in the U.S. are on the brink of collapse due to generational turnover. Because of reduced hiring and the downsizing of courses, the pipeline for training the next generation of researchers is under threat, and urgent support from the public and private sectors in both Japan and the U.S. is needed. Japanese language education also continues to face a difficult situation in maintaining the status quo. Could not a portion of the 80 trillion yen to be invested in the U.S. from Japan following the tariff agreement be allocated as an "investment in the future" and "investment in people" toward supporting Japan-U.S. studies and language education, as well as youth exchange programs? Cultivating "Japan hands" in the U.S. is a security policy just as important as increasing the defense budget—and far less expensive.

Furthermore, each state serves as breeding grounds for the next leaders at the federal level. This time too, Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota joined the second Trump administration as Secretary of Energy, and Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota joined as Secretary of Homeland Security. Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota became the Democratic vice-presidential candidate. Figures like former President Obama (from Illinois State Senator) and former Vice President Pence (from Governor of Indiana) have taken flight from the Midwest to the heart of the federal government. Members of Congress return to their home districts on weekends and feel firsthand the benefits that Japanese companies bring to their local areas. Seeking closer relations with the U.S. at the state level today is an investment in Washington, D.C.’s future stance toward Japan tomorrow.

6. A "Multi-layered Breakwater" to Overcome the Turbulent Waves

In Japan, some voices now suggest we should prepare for a "worst-case scenario." While the year 2026 marks the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, with the midterm elections scheduled for November, President Trump's unpredictability is further accelerating. However, to avoid a self-fulfilling prophecy, preparations for the worst should be conducted cautiously and behind the scenes. It is irresponsible to merely have expectations for the other party. Japan must autonomously fulfill the responsibilities it should inherently bear and take steps to support the international order. We must once again strengthen the multi-layered relationships built by our predecessors at the state level, coordinating across the public, private, academic, and grassroots sectors. This will serve as a "multi-layered breakwater" to overcome the turbulent waves created by the swaying colossus in Washington, D.C. every four or eight years.