[Japan’s Voices No.3] Charting FOIP’s path forward in an unruly world

The global order is in flux and the allure of adhering to the prevailing rule of law as the way forward is being questioned. The rallying cry to reassess the established rules should not be ignored; calls for change can ignite the flames to adapt to new realities quickly and come out stronger. Nowhere is the case for adapting and expanding rules to reflect the new geopolitical realities stronger than in the Indo-Pacific. The economic success of the world’s most populous and dynamic region has been nothing short of remarkable, yet the Indo-Pacific’s future prosperity will depend not simply on expanding market access or furthering trade ties. Promoting supply chain resiliency, withstanding unexpected disruptions, securing steady access to critical minerals, and adapting to the evolving technological landscape are some of the more recent structural challenges that are being confronted. There is a broad consensus that no single Indo-Pacific country can solve such challenges on its own. The question is: is there a way forward to meet those challenges with like-minded countries, and if so, what would the roadmap look like?

A decade ago, the then Prime Minister ABE Shinzo promoted Japan’s vision of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) as a force unifier to bring together a politically, economically, and culturally divergent region. FOIP has since emerged as the pillar of Japan’s foreign policy strategy as well as the foundation of the Indo-Pacific strategies of the United States, the European Union and other advanced economies. FOIP has catapulted Japan’s global standing as a visionary force to bring the Indo-Pacific nations together in the face of growing economic as well as security threats and raised Japan’s reputation as a regional stabilizer. As the Indo-Pacific grapples with the rapidly changing realities of the global order, though, there is mounting urgency for countries – whether presently committed to FOIP or not – to come together. FOIP must also be part of the toolkit for delivering solutions to immediate economic security and regional defense challenges.

Japan has already established a track record as a unifier of like-minded middle powers on the trade front. Since the United States withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement in 2017, Japan has played a key role not only in ensuring that all the other 11 original member countries remained but also in expanding the CPTPP tent. With the UK having become a signatory to the trade pact in 2024 and China, Taiwan, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Uruguay, and Ukraine in varying accession interest, the appetite to enhance trade rijirelations
across borders remains high. Nevertheless, ever-increasing weaponization of economic interdependence is threatening global growth. Coercion by one country strong-arming another by leveraging its chokeholds on critical materials is a threat to the world economy writ large. Standing up to and deterring coercion is a shared interest that transcends national boundaries, but de-risking from coercive actors will require even more coordination and cooperation amongst like-minded countries.

Prime Minister TAKAICHI Sanae has made clear that Japan will continue exhibiting the political will to push for stability across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. This pledge, coupled with the fact that Japan has become the most trusted country amongst ASEAN nations, ahead of both China and the United States, has put PM TAKAICHI in a strong position to promote FOIP as the foundation for regional cooperation. At the same time, confidence in the rules and norms that have traditionally been espoused by the West has undoubtedly been shaken throughout Southeast and South Asia. Countries such as India have found it particularly difficult to accept the imposition of tariffs in an attempt not only to address trade imbalances between the United States and the Indo-Pacific but also to force governments to align their political decision-making processes with Washington’s interests. Delhi struck a trade deal with the United States in early February, but India is unlikely to be able to shake off the shock of being confronted with exorbitant tariffs in the first place. That in turn will continue to weigh on US-India relations.

Japan has sought through FOIP to promote stability and above all trust in a rules-based order but, as the rules themselves shift, FOIP too will have to adapt quickly. Building walls or doubling down on protectionism cannot be the way forward for middle powers, especially in the Indo-Pacific. There is a shared consensus across the region that interdependence is a prerequisite and not an option. As Japan continues to advocate for an Indo-Pacific that is free and open, it must also make clear that adhering to the rule of law is not an end in itself. Rather, the rules and norms proposed by FOIP are means of empowering nations that ultimately need to coexist. That power comes today not only from confidence in supply chain resilience, value chain mobility, and other economic considerations, but also from confidence in the sovereignty of nations.

The geostrategic value and economic vulnerabilities of Pacific Island Countries (PICs), for instance, have intensified competition for military as well as diplomatic influence across Oceania. While escalating strategic competition in the region presents unprecedented opportunities for short-term gains in terms of investments in natural resources or financing of
critical infrastructure, the PICs must not lose sight of their end goal: to preserve their autonomy and determine their own strategic interests without fear. That precept of advancing strategic autonomy resonates within and beyond the Indo-Pacific. Amid seismic shifts in the global order, sovereignty can no longer be taken for granted, and even geographical boundaries can no longer be assumed to remain static.

The Indo-Pacific’s remarkable growth over the decades would not have been possible without openness and stability. Looking ahead, though, there may be an increasingly high price to be paid to ensure openness and stability, one that cannot be covered merely by raising defense spending or making more strategic investments to boost economic competitiveness. A shared vision of regional prosperity featuring greater economic interdependence and respect for sovereignty will be key to keeping the Indo-Pacific the most dynamic region in the world. FOIP can provide the roadmap to make that vision a reality.