Japanese Oriented Toward Personal Safety and Security: Analysis of the Yomiuri Shimbun Public Opinion Survey

The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) conducted a joint public opinion survey with The Yomiuri Shimbun as part of the JIIA Platform project that aims to discuss Japan’s "National Strategy". Using the compiled survey results, the author hereinafter discusses the current public sentiment on what kind of nation Japan should aim to be by focusing on some striking results.

Purposes of the survey

The primary purpose of this survey was to confirm whether the Japanese people feel dissatisfied with or uneasy about the country's present situation and outlook (inclusive of population decline). In the absence of any serious discontent or anxiety among the population, advocating for painful reforms or a "National Strategy" involving changes in resource allocation priorities would undoubtedly be dismissed as fighting a straw man.

The second purpose of the survey was to attain a concrete sense of what direction Japan should aim for – assuming dissatisfaction and anxiety do exist – and what types of self-sacrificing reforms would meet the least resistance. While the survey was limited to just over 30 questions and a specific sample size, these proved sufficient to obtain meaningful results, including trends by age group.

While the author provides his own brief analysis here, the best way for readers to understand what these results indicate is to examine the actual data themselves; boosting public awareness of the need to formulate a “National Strategy” is another major objective of this survey.

A Japanese orientation toward personal safety and security

The first impression garnered from the data is that there is a clear sense of crisis among the Japanese populace. Over 90% of respondents expressed interest in future challenges and a similar percentage viewed population decline as a serious issue, regardless of gender or age. The survey enjoyed an unusually high response rate of nearly 70% (over 2,000 respondents from 3,000 random samples reflective of Japan’s actual age distribution), an outcome likely influenced by the timing (between January 19 and February 26) overlapping with the country’s snap elections in February.

As for the sources of this sense of crisis, anxieties were concentrated on everyday issues directly linked to people’s day-to-day lives. The top-ranked anxieties included a collapsing pension system, large-scale disasters, tax increases, and declining medical services, while lower-rated anxieties encompassed armed conflicts with foreign countries, cyberattacks, terrorism, infectious diseases, and key mineral procurement crises.

When envisioning the national image to which Japan should aspire, respondents prioritized safety and security in such forms as world-class “public security”, “technology”, and “social welfare”, while only about 30% gave precedence to "international influence/voice" or "economic power" and fewer than 20% chose “cultural promotion”. Notably, "a competition-oriented country where people can test their abilities", a prerequisite for future productivity, ranked last at only 4%.

As areas where Japan should maintain world-class standards, "happiness", "medicine/drug discovery", "food culture", “reliable public transport” and other day-to-day concerns were among those ranked high. Interestingly, 37% identified “per capita GDP” as one such area, and the high percentage of younger respondents favoring this offers some hope.

Regarding areas in which Japan should take on a leading role within the international community, “maintenance of an international order based on the rule of law”, “fair trade/investment”, and “environmental measures” ranked at or near the top – with “international contributions in the field of medical insurance” placing unexpectedly high – while “economic assistance to developing/emerging countries” predictably saw low support.

To roughly sum up, a sense of crisis does exist, but people seemingly desire "personal safety and security" above all and are generally unwilling to pay out of their own pockets or endure hardship to achieve these (with certain exceptions in some areas).

Accepting foreign labor based on necessity

The second impression is that the hurdle for accepting "foreign labor" is lower than anticipated.

Over 50% of respondents support accepting foreign labor to aid the nation’s economic growth (combining respondents supporting "acceptance of specialized professionals" and "broad acceptance regardless of expertise"), with less than 15% feeling no need to increase foreign labor and more than 70% in favor of improving conditions (pay and working environments) to attract specialized professionals. On the other hand, over 50% oppose immigration premised on permanent residency.

It appears the term "immigration" carries a negative image that drives opposition. The current situation – in which politicians have instinctively avoided addressing the immigration issue (or have even stoked anti-immigration sentiment) on the grounds of public backlash, despite the undeniable practical necessity – must be rectified without delay, and a rational discussion on accepting foreign talent in line with these practical needs must be fostered. At the very least, recruiting highly skilled professionals and improving their working conditions are unavoidable challenges if Japan is to boost its productivity and increase its GDP per capita.

General agreement but specific opposition in the realm of defense

The third impression is the continued trend of general agreement but specific opposition regarding defense.

While 74% support strengthening defense capability, this figure drops to 58% for increasing the defense budget for that purpose; 40% favor cutting other expenses, with only 7% espousing tax increases. Opposition to relaxing regulations on exporting defense equipment remains very high at 60%, even among LDP supporters.

When it comes to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, opposition to changing those principles is high, but there is a curious nuance: 84% oppose changing the "not permitting introduction" principle (the highest opposition), with 79% opposing a change to the "not possessing" principle (the lowest relative opposition). The implications of this may require further analysis. Meanwhile, support for finding defense applications for advanced technologies developed by universities or private companies remains high at 70%, though it has decreased slightly from the 75% level of two years ago.

The Takaichi administration is expected to tackle issues that enjoy relatively broad support within the ruling party – such as increasing defense spending and clarifying its funding sources, relaxing restrictions on defense equipment exports, and even addressing the Three Non-Nuclear Principles – but doing so may drain the administration’s resources more than anticipated.

The above represents a preliminary analysis of the results of this public opinion survey. These findings will also be discussed at the JIIA-hosted “Tokyo Global Dialogue” scheduled to take place this July. As discussions on national strategy become more concrete, we plan to conduct follow-up surveys to track public reaction, maintaining core questions for fixed-point observation while adding new ones as needed.