Introduction: A Strategic Perspective for 2026: Japan’s Strategic Autonomy and Indispensability in an Era of Uncertainty
Kenichiro Sasae (President, The Japan Institute of International Affairs)
The world in 2026 remains firmly within what can be described as a “period of turmoil.” Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine continue without any clear prospect of resolution, while regional dynamics – including those in the Western Hemisphere, to which the United States is increasingly attentive – interact in complex ways, contributing to heightened global tensions. The distinction between peacetime and wartime is increasingly blurred worldwide. Hybrid threats have effectively become normalized, manifested in airspace violations through the use of high-altitude surveillance balloons and similar means, acts of sabotage against critical infrastructure, damage to subsea cables, and foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) among others. Multilayered threats are simultaneously emerging: increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, rapid advances in artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge technologies, vulnerabilities in supply chains, and worsening climate change. In the United States, the approach of midterm elections in the latter half of 2026 introduces an additional element of domestic political uncertainty that could affect the direction of American foreign policy. Amid the growing resonance of “America First” sentiment, the emerging contours of a new US National Security Strategy make clear that preferential treatment for allies can no longer be taken for granted. A new era is thus unfolding in which nations are expected to assume greater responsibility for their own security through self-help and proactive engagement. This international environment compels Japan to reassess its strategic position and to establish a renewed diplomatic and security perspective commensurate with the challenges of the time.
Faced with a world of such complexity and uncertainty, Japan is called upon to pursue a foreign policy that simultaneously advances both “strategic autonomy” and “strategic indispensability.” While these concepts have traditionally been employed in the domain of economic security, they also hold significant implications for broader diplomatic and security policy. Applying them would first entail developing the capacity to respond proactively and independently to security threats and economic coercion against Japan, namely, the dimension of autonomy. Parallel to this dimension is the enhancement of Japan’s value as a partner upon whom the regional and international community can depend in times of challenge and instability, namely, the dimension of indispensability. The concurrent pursuit of these two imperatives constitutes a decisive foundation for Japan to navigate – and ultimately prevail in – the present era of turmoil.
Strengthening autonomy: reconstructing security policy and the Japan-US alliance
The primary task directly linked to strengthening autonomy is that of addressing the urgent need to review Japan’s three core strategic documents, including the National Security Strategy. The current security environment – characterized by deepening strategic coordination among China, Russia, and North Korea alongside observable shifts in the nature of the US’s external commitments – is increasingly diverging from the assumptions upon which the existing documents were based. It is therefore essential that Japan fundamentally reconstruct its approach to national security and defense free from the constraints of traditional frameworks. Japan–China relations lie at the forefront of this challenge. While indications that the United States and China may seek a period of peaceful coexistence could contribute to the stabilization of the international order, China is simultaneously leveraging this environment to intensify diplomatic and security pressure on Japan and to pursue attempts at altering the status quo. Strengthening preparedness against economic coercion, including measures related to rare earths, while enhancing strategic communication to prevent misperceptions and unintended escalation is of critical importance both for Japan’s national security and for regional stability.
The strengthening of autonomy does not imply any diminution of the alliance relationship. The maintenance and enhancement of the Japan–US alliance will continue to serve as the cornerstones of Japan’s foreign policy. At the same time, in an environment where the credibility of US engagement cannot be assumed to be immutable, Japan must act swiftly to implement necessary measures to sustain and reinforce the alliance’s deterrence and response capabilities while managing the bilateral relationship in a sophisticated and strategic manner. Furthermore, deepening cooperation among like-minded partners such as the Quad (Japan, the United States, Australia, and India) will complement both autonomy and alliance cohesion as well as constitute an important effort toward ensuring stability across the Indo-Pacific region.
Demonstrating indispensability:
rebuilding the international order in partnership with the EU and the Global South
A key element in enhancing Japan’s strategic indispensability lies in strengthening cooperation with countries of the Global South. In 2026, India is expected to surpass Japan in nominal GDP, while countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa are rising in prominence, exerting increasing influence over the formation of the international order. Regional organizations such as ASEAN, MERCOSUR, and the African Union (AU), frameworks such as the Quad among like-minded partners as well as relations with Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea are assuming growing importance. Many of these countries, while differing in levels of engagement and national interests, share a common preference for avoiding being drawn into the binary dynamics of US-China strategic rivalry. Given these dynamics, Japan is expected to pursue a distinctive diplomatic approach that takes into account such sensitivities while offering credible partnership and leadership.
The year 2026 also marks the tenth anniversary of the proposal of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision. In expanding and deepening this vision, it is essential to link it more closely with the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) and to reconstruct FOIP into a more inclusive and operational regional vision. At the same time, Japan should engage proactively in global governance and international rulemaking, clearly positioning universal principles such as the rule of law and free trade within the FOIP framework. Working in coordination with Europe, Japan is expected to help boost the resilience of international institutions by pursuing, for instance, efforts toward World Trade Organization (WTO) reform, the expansion of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and the development of alternative mechanisms to complement or succeed the Wassenaar Arrangement. While adapting to a new era where digital transactions and data flows have become central to trade, Japan must continue addressing a wide range of pressing challenges, to include making supply chains more resilient, enhancing intelligence capabilities, upgrading cybersecurity, and responding to the security implications of climate change.
Rebuilding an international order based on the rule of law
It is precisely during times of turmoil that the international community must reaffirm and pursue not only the practical realities of an order shaped by power, but also the enduring importance of an order sustained without reliance on force. In other words, it is in the shared interest of all nations to uphold an international system that places emphasis on the rule of law, justice, fairness, transparency, and due process alongside strategic stability grounded in the balance of power. The advancement of FOIP represents an important endeavor through which Japan, grounded in these values, can proactively shape its own future amid a fluid and uncertain international environment. The Japan Institute of International Affairs is committed to contributing to policy discussions that further enhance Japan’s strategic autonomy and strategic indispensability in this era of growing global uncertainty, and to exerting every effort for the sound development of Japanese diplomacy and the international order.
(Note) This Strategic Outlook covers the calendar year 2025. Consequently, it does not include analysis of, for example, the new US National Defense Strategy (NDS) issued in early 2026, which may have significant implications for the global strategic landscape.