[Japan’s Voices No. 24] Japan’s Road to Inclusion at a Time of Nativism Worldwide

For many years, developments and debates surrounding Japan's policies on immigration and the acceptance of foreign nationals have been shaped by the assumption that Japan has no immigration policy. However, statistical evidence and international standards suggest that the structure of Japanese society already clearly exhibits the characteristics of a liberal and open labor-immigration state.

Japan Is Already a “Labor-Immigration State”

According to the 2023 population projections of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, foreign residents in Japan are expected to account for approximately 10.8 percent of the country’s total population, or roughly 9.39 million people, by 2070, and Japan continues to this day to experience a net annual increase of 200,000 to 300,000 foreign residents. This is not a temporary phenomenon but a structural demographic trend.

Under definitions commonly employed by international organizations such as the OECD, migrants who reside under statuses without limits on duration of stay or renewals are classified as “permanent-type migrants.” Nearly 60 percent of foreign residents in Japan already fall into this category.

The structure of Japan’s migrant admission regime differs significantly from those of most Western countries. In the United States and many European nations, a large share of permanent migrants arrive through “family reunification” or “humanitarian (refugee)” channels. In Japan, by contrast, migration is overwhelmingly employment-driven. Among advanced economies, Japan has one of the highest proportions of labor migrants who can transition to permanent residence. In substantive terms, Japan has developed a remarkably liberal pathway for labor immigration. Japan's immigration governance framework and safeguards for individual rights have also been highly regarded in international assessments, including indicators associated with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

Historical Evolution and the Emergence of “Embedded Liberalism”

How did such a system emerge despite the persistent assertion that Japan has no immigration policy? The answer lies in the unique historical trajectory of Japan’s immigration administration in the postwar era.

1.    The era of control and exclusion (1950s - 1970s)
Japan's postwar immigration regime originated in policies aimed at managing and encouraging the repatriation of former colonial subjects, as well as in the principle of not admitting "unskilled" foreign workers during the period of rapid economic growth, as articulated in the 1967 Basic Employment Measures Plan. From its inception, the system was founded on the principles of control and exclusion.

2.    The formation of “embedded liberalism” (1970s - 1980s)
The emergence of Indochinese refugees and Japan’s accession to the Refugee Convention in 1981 prompted significant domestic legal reforms. Social security coverage and fundamental rights for foreign residents were expanded considerably. At the same time, institutional arrangements that respected the human rights of settled foreign residents and embodied “embedded liberalism” were gradually incorporated into the system through civil rights movements led by long-term Korean residents in Japan and diplomatic negotiations between Japan and South Korea.

3.  Side doors and skill formation as pathways to settlement (1990s – 2010s)
The 1989 revision of the Immigration Control Act expanded the admission of foreign workers in professional and technical fields (high-skilled talent), while less-skilled and semi-skilled workers were accepted through programs such as the Technical Intern Training Program (TITP) and the long-term resident visa category for people of Japanese descent (Nikkeijin). The TITP was formally justified in terms of international cooperation, but it also incorporated mechanisms for vocational training and skills certification unique to the Japanese system. Those features would later become central to Japan’s approach to migration.

4.    Labor migration policy under population decline (2010s – present)
Facing severe labor shortages caused by population aging and declining birthrates, Japan introduced the Specified Skilled Worker Program (SSW) in 2019. The system created a structured progression of categories from Technical Intern (TITP) to Specified Skilled Worker (i) (SSW (i)) and ultimately to Specified Skilled Worker (ii) (SSW (ii)), which allows family accompaniment and unlimited renewals. The result is a migration model that is unusual by international standards: a pathway to long-term settlement built upon skill acquisition and human capital development. The 2024 enactment of the Employment for Skill Development Framework (ESDP) further reinforces this direction by explicitly integrating employment, workforce development and skills development into a single framework.

The Global Labor Market’s Structure and Japan's Competitive Advantages

In recent years, a popular narrative has emerged suggesting that Japan, weakened by economic stagnation and a depreciating yen, is no longer an attractive destination for foreign workers. The available data and contemporary theories of international migration theory, however, refute this interpretation.

The “aspiration-capability model” of international migration, advanced by scholars such as Hein de Haas, argues that emigration tends to increase during the early stages of economic development (i.e., when GDP per capita begins to grow). As living standards improve, people gain greater access to the financial resources and information needed for migration, thereby increasing both their “capabilities” and their “aspirations” to move abroad. Many emerging Asian economies, including Vietnam and Indonesia, are in precisely this phase at the moment. 

This reality is reflected in international survey data. Gallup’s global opinion surveys conducted between 2022 and 2024 consistently ranked Japan among the most desirable migration destinations for those in Southeast Asian nations, second only to the United States. The attraction is particularly strong among educated and middle-income populations. Within the Asian labor market, Japan is widely perceived as an open country where upward mobility remains possible through individual effort and skill development rather than through inherited privilege, substantial wealth, or exclusive social networks, and where routes toward long-term settlement are accessible.

Long-term projections produced by organizations such as JICA and the Japan Center for Economic Research similarly suggest that, as demographic decline in Japan coincides with continued economic growth across Asia, annual net migration gains of approximately 200,000 to 250,000 people will continue for the foreseeable future. 

Japan’s Expected Role in an Era of Nativism

The current rise of xenophobia and far-right political movements across Europe and North America has heightened political tensions, generating a democratic crisis that complicates both the acceptance of immigrants and their integration into society.

Japan's circumstances and historical trajectory have been markedly different. Unlike many Western countries, where migration is often debated in the context of cyclical labor market fluctuations, Japan confronts a structural decline in population. Hence, competition for employment with Japanese workers, along with poverty and social problems resulting from unemployment, is structurally unlikely to arise. Moreover, Japan's comparative advantages lie in its gradual, skills-based pathway to social inclusion and in the integration of migrant workers into public welfare institutions, including pension and health insurance systems, through employment.

However, recent developments suggest a growing trend toward xenophobic attitudes and stricter control measures targeting foreign residents in Japan. For example, the increase in the minimum capital requirement for the Business Manager visa from ¥5 million to ¥30 million, as well as the sharp rise in the permanent residence application fee from ¥10,000 to ¥200,000, can be seen as symbolic examples of this trend. Tightening requirements and intensifying financial burdens so abruptly risk significantly discouraging entrepreneurship and long-term settlement in Japan, potentially driving highly skilled professionals and business operators to seek opportunities elsewhere. Moreover, the growing costs borne by host companies may undermine Japan's attractiveness in the intensifying global competition for talent.

What Japan needs in the face of ongoing population decline is not harsher exclusionary policies based on ambiguous or unsubstantiated concerns, but rather a rational and equitable institutional framework grounded in objective data and designed to include foreign residents as equal members of society. At a time when many Western countries are turning toward nativism, Japan's most important role is to resist unfounded fears and instead provide and lead with fair, evidence-based rules.

The fundamental challenges that Japan must address in the years ahead can be summarized as follows.

-    Pursuing evidence-based integration policies
Eliminate persistent anxieties and inaccurate narratives, such as the unfounded claim that foreign residents are "free-riding" on the public health insurance system, and comprehensively promote social integration policies based on official statistics and empirical research, including greater access to Japanese-language education, expanded livelihood support, and more advanced statistical infrastructure.

-    Enhancing support for local communities and SMEs
Recognizing that migrant reception has increasingly shifted to local governments struggling with depopulation as well as to SMEs and primary-sector industries, the national government should expand sustained, hands-on support through both financial resources and institutional expertise.

-    Presenting a vision for a free mobility area within Asia
Encourage mutual recognition of educational and professional qualifications and deepen Skills Mobility Partnerships (SMPs), thereby creating a framework for safe and transparent mobility and co-creation with Asia's growing economies.

As Western countries turn increasingly toward nativism, Japan's ability to sustain and further develop the inclusive admission model it has cultivated through skills formation, a form of “embedded liberalism”, will not only help maintain its own socioeconomic vitality but also offer the international community a sustainable model that reconciles humanitarian values with labor mobility. What is required of the current administration is an accurate evaluation of Japan's past trajectory and the capacity to build upon it through effective policymaking.

Dr. Yu KOREKAWA is Director of the Migration Research Unit, Department of International Research and Cooperation, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.  He also serves as a member of various expert advisory bodies in Japan and abroad, including the Immigration Services Agency of Japan’s Expert Committee on the Basic Policy and Sector-Specific Operational Policies for the Specified Skilled Worker System and the Employment for Skill Development Program, and the OECD Continuous Reporting System on International Migration (SOPEMI). He has authored many publications, including Recruiting Immigrant Workers: Japan 2024 (co-authored with the OECD).  

The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not reflect those of JIIA CGO.