Hiroshima Nuclear Forecast 2026 – Final Version Released

The Hiroshima Nuclear Forecast 2026 is a pilot initiative commissioned by the Hiroshima Organization for Global Peace (HOPe) to the Center for Disarmament, Science and Technology (CDAST). Between May and August 2026, CDAST conducted an original survey of 55 nuclear and foreign policy experts from 17 countries, who were asked to identify the three nuclear risks of greatest concern to them over the next 12 months and assess their likelihood, potential international impact, recent evolution, and perceived level of general awareness. 

Based on the survey results, the Forecast identified ten major nuclear risk categories. Nuclear escalation in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine emerged as the most widespread concern, cited by 53% of respondents, followed by the Korean Peninsula (35%), Iran and the Middle East (31%), and attacks on nuclear facilities and related safety concerns (29%). Other identified risk categories included the resumption of nuclear testing, risks of inadvertent escalation associated with emerging technologies, nuclear proliferation, a U.S.-China confrontation over Taiwan, nuclear arms racing, and India-Pakistan escalation. 

The Forecast also highlights the interconnected nature of nuclear risks. Nuclear coercion, regional conflicts, the erosion of arms control and the non-proliferation regime, and renewed arms racing can reinforce one another, creating multiple pathways toward nuclear escalation. It also underlines important gaps between the perceived deterioration of certain risks and their level of general awareness, particularly regarding nuclear command-and-control vulnerabilities and attacks on nuclear facilities. The Forecast serves as an early warning assessment by outlining potential escalation pathways, persistent policy gaps, and indicators to monitor changes in nuclear risks. 

The Hiroshima Nuclear Forecast 2026 served as the basis for discussions at the Hiroshima Roundtable, held on September 2-3, 2026, which brought together 14 Japanese and international experts and produced a series of policy recommendations, included at the end of the Forecast report. 

Link to the Hiroshima Nuclear Forecast 2026 report